A significant predictor of in-hospital and long-term mortality and progression in COVID-19 patients: The end-stage liver disease (MELD) score model

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and disease progression and mortality in COVID-19 patients. The files of 4213 patients over the age of 18 who were hospitalized with the diagnosis of COVID-19 between March 20, 2020 and May 1, 2021 were retrospectively scanned. Sociodemographic characteristics, chronic diseases, hemogram and biochemical parameters at the time they were diagnosed with COVID-19 of the patients, duration of hospitalization, duration of intensive care unit (ICU), duration of intubation, in-hospital mortality from COVID-19 and outside-hospital mortality for another reason (within the last 1 year) and recurrent hospitalization (within the last 1 year) were recorded. The MELD scores of the patients were calculated. Two groups were formed as MELD score < 10 and MELD score >= 10. The rate of ICU, in-hospital mortality from COVID-19 and outside-hospital mortality from other causes, intubation rate, and recurrent hospitalization were significantly higher in the MELD >= 10 group. The duration of ICU, hospitalization, intubation were significantly higher in the MELD >= 10 group (p < 0.001). As a result of Univariate and Multivariate analysis, MELD score was found to be the independent predictors of ICU, in-hospital mortality, intubation, and recurrent hospitalization (p < 0.001). MELD score 18.5 predicted ICU with 99% sensitivity and 100% specificity (area under curve [AUC]: 0.740, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.717-0.763, p < 0.001) also MELD score 18.5 predicted in-hospital mortality with 99% sensitivity and 100% specificity (AUC: 0.797, 95% CI: 0.775-0.818, p < 0.001). The MELD score was found to be the independent predictors of in-hospital mortality, ICU admission, and intubation in COVID-19 patients.