A new hybrid approach for determining sector-specific risk factors in Turkish Straits: Fuzzy AHP-PRAT technique

Abstract

In this study, a hybrid approach that combines the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and Proportional Risk Assessment Technique (PRAT) methods was developed for use within the scope of risk analysis. Using a hybrid approach for risk assessment enables researchers to overcome the disadvantages and limitations of a single method. The approach proposed in this study provides an opportunity to eliminate misconceptions that may arise from subjective judgments based only on expert opinions and inconsistencies that may occur from insufficient data. With the proposed approach, realistic analysis results were obtained by combining expert opinions and statistical data. The Turkish Straits System was chosen as a case study application area. One of the most important results of the study is that ships passing through the Turkish Straits face different risks in each Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) sector. The results proved that the proposed method could effectively be used as a consistent and accurate risk assessment tool. The study can contribute to safe strait passages by defining sector specific risks that ships passing through the strait may encounter.