Symmetric and asymmetric frequency-domain causality between tourism demand and exchange rates in Turkiye: a regional comparison

Abstract

PurposeThis study investigates if the causal relationships between the exchange rates and selected inbound markets' tourism demand are temporary or permanent, and compares market reactions in Turkiye.Design/methodology/approachTourism demand is examined with a regional approach, focusing on the geographical markets, namely Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members and Asian countries, as the top inbound tourism markets, in addition to the total number of inbound tourists to Turkiye. Granger, frequency-domain causality, asymmetric Toda-Yamamoto, and asymmetric frequency-domain causality tests were employed to investigate and compare markets on exchange rate-tourism demand relationship for 2008M01-2020M02.FindingsThe results indicate that exchange rates affect European tourism demand both in the short and long run. The meaning of this Frequency Domain Causality (FDC) analysis finding shows that the exchange rate has both permanent and temporary effects on European tourists. The relationships are statistically insignificant for CIS members and Asian countries. The exchange rates also permanently affect total inbound tourism demand, but the independent variable has no short-run (temporary) effects on total demand. Asymmetric causality tests confirmed a permanent causality relationship from the positive and negative components of exchange rates to the positive and negative components of European and total tourism demand.Originality/valueThe Granger causality test provides information on the presence of a causal relation, while the FDC test, an extended version of Granger causality, enlightens the short- (temporary) and long-run (permanent) relationships and allows for analyzing the duration of the impact. In addition, asymmetric causality relationships are also investigated in the study. Besides, this study is the first in the literature to examine the relationship between tourism demand and the exchange rate regionally (continentally) for Turkiye.