Spatial and statistical analysis of operational conditions influencing accident formation in narrow waterways: A Case Study of Istanbul Strait and Dover Strait

Abstract

Identifying accident-prone areas in narrow waterways, which are the nodal points of global maritime trade, assessing accident risks, and reviewing existing safety measures are essential for countries adjacent to narrow waterways as well as all other stakeholders of maritime trade. Furthermore, this is a requirement to ensure safety-sustainable maritime trade. In this study, marine accident density maps were generated utilizing Geographical Information Systems (GIS) software based on reports of collision, contact, grounding, and sinking accidents that occurred in Istanbul Strait (IS) and Dover Strait (DS) between 2004 and 2020. The Chi-Square independence test, one of the main statistical methods, was then used to determine if there were statistically significant relationships between the operational conditions and the accident type, the accident severity, and the Kernel density. Finally, the operational conditions and statistical results were presented to experts, who are familiar with the area, discussed, and then validated. As a result, marine accident density maps for IS and DS were presented and the hazards arising from operational conditions in these narrow waterways were determined. The results of the study will help to raise awareness about the current hazards arising from operational condiotions in IS and DS, which are important hubs of maritime trade.