Latitudinal shifts in mangrove species worldwide: evidence from historical occurrence records

Abstract

Consequences of global climate change on mangrove habitats are ambiguous owing to multifaceted factors. In this study, we examined historical occurrences of ten common mangrove species and quantified the rate of latitudinal shift as a possible response to climate change. The Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) was used to gather occurrence of mangrove species. We found that nine of ten species have been shifting poleward since the 1950s. Overall mean latitudinal shift rates of mangrove species were significantly higher in Australia than in North America (1.7 and 1.3 latitude degrees per decade, respectively). In Australia, mean temperature and precipitation of localities decreased as mangrove species shifted towards drier regions at higher latitudes. However, in North America and West Africa, mean temperature of localities seems relatively stable, whereas precipitation slightly decreased. We provide new quantitative information on shifts in occurrence of common mangrove species worldwide under a changing climate. We confirm the poleward movement of mangrove species over the past 70 years and suggest that local mean temperature and precipitation can act as key drivers of mangrove range shifts. We also advise that poleward latitudinal shifts in mangrove species should be taken into account when establishing new nature reserves.